Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
